Project Name: São Paulo Urban Mobility Program – Passenger Demand Projections, Clearing House Analysis, and Ancillary Revenue Studies for Public Transit Concessions
Year: 2023 – Present
Location: São Paulo / SP
Client: International Finance Corporation (IFC)
Main Project Features: Comprehensive demand modeling, ticketing clearinghouse mechanism evaluation, and non-farebox/ancillary revenue studies for major urban rail and intercity passenger rail projects in the São Paulo Metropolitan Region under the State Government’s concessions pipeline. The portfolio includes CPTM Lines 11/12/13, CPTM Lines 10/14, the Sorocaba Intercity Train (TIC West Axis), and São Paulo Metro Lines 19-Celeste and 20-Rosa.
Activities Performed:
- Passenger Demand Modeling:
- Data Consolidation & Review: Systematic collection and standardization of baseline transport network data, regional urban development plans, road networks, and existing bus and rail passenger flows.
- Four-Step Demand Modeling: Calibration and simulation of four-step transport models to generate project-level passenger volume forecasts across multiple short-, medium-, and long-term future horizons.
- Clearing House Financial Assessment: Evaluation of the metropolitan fare collection and revenue-clearing ecosystem (Bilhete Único, TOP card, QR Code systems) to analyze fare distribution rules, financial flows, and long-term clearinghouse sustainability.
- Ancillary & Non-Farebox Revenue Strategy:
- Site & Market Diagnostics: Assessment of passenger profiles, commercial floor spaces, advertising capacity, and real estate development potential across stations and rights-of-way.
- Opportunity Mapping: Identification of internal demand-driven revenues (retail leasing, kiosk concessions, advertising, digital media, vending) and external real estate development opportunities (transit-oriented development / TOD, air rights development).
- Revenue Stream Quantification: Local market analyses and financial modeling to estimate short- and long-term non-farebox cash flow projections for upcoming concession tenders.